Latest Weather News
Remaining unsettled and colder or much colder with snow?
By Lewis in UK Weather Forecast News 1The unsettled weather will continue with areas of low pressure working their way in from the Atlantic, however a change is ahead this week as we see some colder air interacting with these areas of low pressure which may turn rain to sleet and snow for some, particularly over higher ground.
We mentioned yesterday on our Facebook page that at the moment weather models are struggling to get a firm grip on this weeks weather pattern and this mornings weather data hasn't changed that, it has actually thrown another potential scenario into the equation by showing a much more potent and colder NE-Easterly flow developing with more in the way of wintry precipitation.
From a forecasters point of view we take a look at all available weather data and look for trends, one way of looking at the probability or looking for some kind of verification is by looking at something we called ensembles. Each model run has a variety of different members or a better way of putting it is scenarios.
The chart below is an ensemble graph which shows all 20 members from the GFS model run 00z 8th Feb (this morning). As you can see the control run (black line) shows much colder upper 850 temperatures which represent colder air and colder weather. Most of the lines are close together from the start of the graph right through to the 11th of Feb, thereafter there is more scatter between the members which shows less agreement and uncertainty at that time frame. What this graph also highlights is that despite many members agreeing that colder air is on the way, how cold it will become and how prolonged it will be is the main uncertainty with many members showing an increase in upper 850 temperatures.
The below chart is what we call the operational member and it clearly shows much colder weather with what we call a "slider", this is an area of low pressure that moves into the United Kingdom with colder air to the north and north-east, as it pulls away into the near continent it draws in much colder air from the north-east.
The most likely outcome at the moment is that the weather will turn colder and despite a real potent blast of much colder weather being less likely we cannot disregard it just yet. If the coldest air doesn't make it here some areas at least may have a chance of seeing some snow as these areas of low pressure at times bump into colder air, although it will be a much more delicate and marginal situation. We will keep you updated as always.
Storm Henry Latest - Damaging winds as low pressure continues to dominate
By Lewis in UK Weather Forecast News 0Stormy weather is on the way later this afternoon in the form of storm Henry, a very deep and vigorous low and he really means business!
Already this morning sees strong to gale force winds across the northern half of the United Kingdom which are already causing problems and as the day progresses storm henry's force will certainly be felt across Northern Ireland, Scotland and the far north of England with damaging gusts in excess of 90mph expected across Scotland with gusts ranging from 60-70mph for Northern England later this afternoon and overnight into tomorrow morning. At the moment we expect the strongest winds across Shetland and exposed north-west coasts/hills with gusts perhaps reaching 100mph!
The below charts show expected wind gusts;
We will continue to post updates throughout the day with live updates on storm Henry.
Batten down the hatches!