Autumn 2013 Weather Forecast
Below is our preliminary look at the forecast for Autumn 2013. Please bear in mind this is preliminary outlook, and the forecast may be subject to change when we come to releasing our final forecast for Autumn in late August. Also, as ever, this is a long range forecast, and so the usual disclaimers associated with long range forecasts apply.
You will notice on the charts above that the temperatures (first chart) are expected to be slightly below average overall, but that the precipitation levels (second chart)are expected to be below average too away from the far North. Given the mean height anomalies shown on the bottom chart, giving us some indication of where areas of higher and lower pressure may set up at the surface, September overall is likely to finish with high pressure to the South-West influencing the UK a fair amount, but with the flow from North of West, hence the suppressed temperatures.
So, we would expect a fairly dry month, but not an always settled month, with perhaps sunshine and showers best describing the prevailing conditions for the month as a whole, with the wettest conditions across the far North. Given our chosen similar years, it currently looks as though the first half of the month will follow on from the final days of August with some settled and largely dry weather, before slightly less settled conditions take more of a hold during the second half of the month.
Ever since our preliminary summer forecast (issued all the way back in late March) October has consistently shown the potential to be the best month of the year – if dry and settled weather is your thing of course. This signal appeared during our preliminary summer forecast, and then again during our final summer forecast. And now, I am please to report, has also shown up during our preliminary Autumn forecast research.
So then, overall, given the above charts signalling below average precipitation, slightly above average temperatures, and high pressure likely to be in charge for much of the month, we expect that, after an unsettled start leading on from the end of September, high pressure to centre itself across the UK, and for the month as a whole to be pretty settled and dry, with temperatures slightly above the seasonal average. In other words, we expect October to be one of the best months of the year. The only thing to bear in mind as we move into October is that high pressure and clear skies so late in the year can often lead to the first frosts of the season, so some potentially warm days followed by increasingly chilly nights.
So we edge towards winter. November can be a very changeable month, with everything but the kitchen sink thrown in in previous years. The indications at present suggest that temperatures will be below average (a bit of a trend for 2013 as a whole), precipitation levels are likely to be below average for Western areas, but slightly above the average for Eastern areas – we’ll explain why shortly. And in terms of pressure setup, a mid-Atlantic high looks to be the dominant force, once again returning a flow North of West.
November overall then looks likely to be a little chilly in truth, with winds often sourced from a Northerly quadrant, as we see low pressure through Scandinavia and into NW Europe just to our East. The influence of these low pressure systems may well cause something slightly less settled through the month for Northern and Eastern areas – hence the split in precipitation levels – where as for Western areas, closer to the mid-Atlantic high pressure system, it looks likely to be a drier month. Still cool though for all.
Forecaster: Kris Surtees
Autumn 2013 weather forecast