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UK Long Range Weather forecast

UK Long Range Weather forecast



Longer Term Forecast and Trends
Tuesday 7th April to Monday 4th May 2015

Summary

The warm and settled conditions of present will continue within the immediate future but a change to more unsettled and cooler conditions is expected towards and beyond mid-April. However, within the longer term, to end April and start May, after a period of more unsettled conditions there are signs that warmer and more settled conditions will re-develop as April comes to an end. This rather changeable outlook is quite ‘typical’ for the time of year with some pleasant weather at times interspersed with more unsettled and cooler conditions too.

Average Mean Temperature for the Forecast Period: 13C

WEEK 1 (7th to 13th Apr):

Summary: Dry and warm start to the week, generally cooler and more unsettled to end the week.

Temperatures: Temperatures are forecast to vary significantly through this week with above average temperatures up to the 10th before temperatures then fall back to nearer average with a much cooler feel to the weather by the end of the week.

Rainfall: A drier than average week is expected overall, but with some rain and showers possible after the 11th, but given that high pressure is the dominant feature up to then then slightly below average rainfall totals are likely.

Confidence: Confidence is high to suggest that fine, settled and warm conditions will persist up to the 10th before a change to cooler and more unsettled conditions then develops thereafter to end the week.

WEEK 2 (14th to 20th Apr):

Summary: Generally unsettled through the week but drier and brighter intervals possible at times.

Temperatures: Temperatures, overall, are likely to be near to average. Some warmer days are possible, but equally and to balance the situation out, some cooler days are possible too especially in any wet weather. Some overnight frosts may be possible at times.

Rainfall: Precipitation totals are forecast to recover to near average values through this week with some rain and showers at times interspersed with drier and brighter conditions at times.

Confidence: Confidence is medium to high to suggest that a rather changeable and ‘typical’ period of April weather is expected through this week with generally unsettled conditions dominating bringing some rain and showers at times. Equally there will be some drier and brighter days at times too with both temperature and rainfall averaging out to near average values.

WEEK 3 (21st to 27th Apr):

Summary: Increasingly unsettled and likely cooler too.

Temperatures: Temperatures are likely to be near to or slightly below average through this week as more unsettled conditions develop with temperatures 1C or 2C below average at times.

Rainfall: Rainfall totals are forecast to be near average, if not perhaps slightly above average, especially compared with the previous weeks given that far more unsettled conditions are likely to develop during the latter half of April at the moment.

Confidence: Confidence is low to medium, given quite good long range model agreement, for the latter half April to generally become more unsettled after some fine and settled conditions in previous weeks. Temperatures may well begin to trend slightly below average and rainfall totals will recover after recent dry weather in previous weeks.

WEEK 4 (28th Apr to 4th May):

Summary: Potentially drier and warmer end to April and start to May.

Temperatures: Current indications are for the end of April to potentially become more settled once again and generally warm so current predictions indicate temperatures becoming slightly above average with a risk of some warm weather developing through this week.

Rainfall: With high pressure expected to become the dominant feature of the weather at the moment to end April and start May then precipitation totals are forecast to be slightly below average to end the month, after a wetter spell of weather in the previous week.

Confidence: Confidence is low, for now, to suggest that more unsettled conditions in the previous week will be replaced by an increasingly warm and settled end to April as high pressure develops.

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