UK Long Range Weather Forecast

Our UK Long Range Weather Forecast provides you with the expected weather over the next 3 – 4 weeks. Using longer range forecasting techniques we can provide a solid guide as to the expected weather and possible trends in temperatures and rainfall. Our UK Long Range Weather Forecast will also look at pressure trends and will mention any potential significant weather events.


UK Long Range Weather Forecast and Trends

Friday 29th April to Thursday 26th May 2016

UK long range weather forecast summary

Mixed and unsettled conditions are likely early on in the period meaning some spells of wet and windy weather along with plenty of showery activity. There will be some drier and brighter interludes at times but these are most likely to be across the southern half of the UK with the northern half remaining generally unsettled. Hints of a high pressure build during the second week gives hope of some drier and warmer weather developing which may push through the third week but thereafter there are signals for the westerly flow to return.

UK Long Range Weather Forecast WEEK 1 (29th April to 5th May): 

Summary: Mixed conditions likely as the westerly flow returns!!!

Conditions during this period are likely to be largely dominated by low pressure as we see the North Atlantic jet strengthen, which will aid in the development of low pressure systems and these will effectively cross close to or across the UK during this period. Expect periods of rain and showers throughout and the winds will also be a feature gusting to gale force on a few occasions. There will be some brighter interludes at times, perhaps more so across the south of the UK but the emphasis is clearly on a more unsettled pattern.

As a result rainfall amounts will most likely be average to above average, particularly across the northern half of the UK with the south perhaps more towards average. Temperatures will fluctuate somewhat with warmer sectors replaced by colder air and this ‘flip flopping’ will continue through the week so temperatures as a whole will be around average with perhaps the south slightly above.

week 1 heightsweek 1 temp anom

UK Long Range Weather Forecast WEEK 2 (6th May to 12th May): 

Summary:  A mixed week overall but hints of high pressure!!!

During the first half of the period we could see a continuance of the westerly flow with showers being most likely rather than bands of rain, although the far NW may continue to be wet at times. There will be some drier or brighter interludes at times but these are likely to be more frequent across the south of the UK. The flow will often come from the south-west and as such temperatures won’t be cold. Later in the period there are subtle hints that an area of high pressure may develop across the South/South East of the UK bringing settled and warmer weather across these areas initially before edging further north. Confidence for this scenario is low at the moment but the models are starting to show similar patterns, thus, confidence will build in the next few days on this.

Temperatures during this period will hover around the seasonal average but there will be times where this value is exceed thus, overall temperatures for the period will most likely come out around average to slightly above average. Precipitation totals are likely to vary greatly across the country, with the north seeing average to perhaps slightly above average, whereas the south will most likely see average to slightly below.

week 2 heights week 2 temp anom

UK Long Range Weather Forecast WEEK 3 (13th  to 19th May):

Summary:  High pressure on the way?

At this length confidence is low but that said, a few long range models persist with the idea of high pressure building over or close to the UK, bringing largely settled weather although some western areas may see more in the way of cloud but this largely depends on the position of the high. Should the high build then expect some warm temperatures with the flow perhaps coming from the South-east but this flow may also bring the risk of some thundery showers across the south later in the period. Temperatures overall will most likely come out above average for the time of year with precipitation totals generally below average

week 3 heights week 3 temp anom

UK Long Range Weather Forecast WEEK 4 (20th to 26th May):

Summary:  No signal either way for dry or wet weather to dominate

Again confidence is low but signals from a few long range models hint at an area of high pressure building to the south-west of the UK, which keeps the flow westerly and as a result mixed conditions are more likely than drier and settled conditions. The weather will remain changeable with rain and showery periods interspersed with drier and brighter conditions as pressure overall is signaled to be around average, meaning no deep depressions are expected. Equally there is no signal for high pressure dominance. Temperatures are likely to be around the seasonal average,perhaps slightly above, with rainfall totals will coming out around average for the time of year.

week 4 heights week 4 temp anom