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UK Long Range Weather forecast

UK Long Range Weather forecast



UK Long range weather forecast and trends
Tuesday 17th March to Monday 13th April 2015

Summary

Predominantly fine and settled conditions within the short term will continue. However, there remains quite a consistent signal from the medium and longer range models for far more unsettled conditions to develop during the final week of March and into early April. This, as a result, will signal some particularly wet weather to end the month after dry weather within the short term. Temperatures are likely to be near to average overall but temporarily becoming slightly below average, especially in association with any wet and windy weather.

Average Mean Temperature for the Forecast Period: 10C

WEEK 1 (17th to 23rd Mar):

Summary: Generally remaining fine and settled, though perhaps becoming more unsettled late in the week.

Temperatures: Temperatures, overall, are likely to be near average so feeling pleasant in any sunshine but equally nights are likely to be cold still with some frost certainly possible at times and both early and late each day will be quite cold as well.

Rainfall: Precipitation totals overall are forecast to remain slightly below or below average given that high pressure is likely to remain an influential feature of the weather.

Confidence: Confidence is high to suggest that further fine and settled conditions will dominate through this week as we progress beyond mid-March with some early spring weather possible as high pressure remains the dominant feature of the weather.

WEEK 2 (24th to 30th Mar):

Summary: Generally becoming more unsettled and potentially colder.

Temperatures: Temperatures are forecast to be near to average, perhaps trending slightly below average a little with some frost possible at times.

Rainfall: Given a progression towards more unsettled conditions then rainfall totals are forecast to recover back to nearer average after the potentially dry or very dry weather in the previous week. Some wintry precipitation is possible but generally only on high ground.

Confidence: Confidence is medium to high to suggest that after a prolonged period of fine and settled conditions in previous weeks, the end of March is likely to become more unsettled and somewhat colder as high pressure is replaced by low pressure and more unsettled weather.

WEEK 3 (31st Mar to 6th Apr):

Summary: A generally unsettled regime is likely to continue but with perhaps drier and brighter weather at times.

Temperatures: Temperatures are forecast to be near to average overall to end March and move into the opening week of April which will signal the risk of some frost and it will be quite cool, especially given unsettled conditions.

Rainfall: Rainfall totals are forecast to be near or trending slightly above average for early April given that there is a clear signal for low pressure to be influential and hence produce a risk of rain or showers at times through the week.

Confidence: Confidence is medium to suggest that rather unsettled conditions are likely to continue as we move into early April with spells of wet and windy weather interspersed with some drier and brighter conditions at times.

WEEK 4 (7th to 13th Apr):

Summary: Changeable and rather mixed conditions towards mid-April.

Temperatures: Temperatures, at the moment, are forecast to be generally near to average for early to mid-April which will signal some warmer days, but equally some colder days are still possible as well, especially when the weather is more unsettled, wet and windy.

Rainfall: Given that low pressure is still forecast to be influential then precipitation totals, at the moment, are expected to be around average for the time of year with some wet weather but equally with some drier intervals at times too.

Confidence: Confidence is low to medium to suggest that early to mid-April will maintain quite ‘average’ conditions for the time of year with low pressure and unsettled conditions often dominant, but with some drier and brighter weather possible at times.

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