UK Long Range Weather Forecast
Our Long Range Forecast is here to provide you with an idea as to the expected weather within the longer term across the UK in general. As you can appreciate weather forecasting is not an exact science and the further one progresses away from present day then confidence in the expected weather decreases accordingly. However, using longer range forecasting techniques and information the below forecast will provide a good guide as to the expected weather and possible trends in temperatures and rainfall throughout the next 3 to 4 weeks.
Longer Term Forecast and Trends
Tuesday 7th July to Monday 3rd August 2015
Latest medium and longer range forecast model data continues to point towards a more changeable middle and latter half of July. This, as a result, means a general mixture of weather conditions with some drier, sunnier and warmer weather at times, but this being balanced out with cooler, wetter and more unsettled conditions at times too. At the moment late July and into early August may well become more persistently warmer and drier, but at the moment the remainder of July looks distinctly ‘average’ with little signal for any persistent hot, sunny and dry summer weather.
Average Mean Temperature for the Forecast Period: 19C
WEEK 1 (7th to 13th July):
Summary: A changeable spell of weather as we approach mid-July both regarding temperatures and rainfall.
Temperatures: Temperatures are likely to be quite varied through this week with a period of slightly below average temperatures, by 1C or 2C, likely near the 7th and the 8th, before temperatures then recover back to nearer average from around the 10th onwards. No significant hot or humid weather is expected during this week.
Rainfall: Rainfall totals are forecast to be near to average though perhaps trending slightly below average at times. The rather changeable conditions are likely to continue now so whilst there will be some drier and brighter conditions, spells of rain and showers certainly seem possible at times too along with a more local possibility of thunderstorms.
Confidence: High confidence to suggest that this week will provide rather changeable conditions with certainly some drier, brighter and warmer weather developing at times, but equally this will be balanced out with spells of rain and showers along with cooler temperatures too.
WEEK 2 (14th to 20th July):
Summary: A rather changeable mid-month is now expected as a combination of further rain and showers are interspersed with drier and warmer conditions too.
Temperatures: Temperatures are likely to average out at generally near normal, but with slightly below average temperatures certainly possible at times. The risk of any significant hot and humid weather, for now, seems quite low given that the general wind direction is likely to be from the west or north-west.
Rainfall: Rainfall totals are forecast to average out at near to average at the moment. Some wet weather is certainly possible at times, especially across more northern and western areas, but equally there will be some drier and brighter spells too.
Confidence: Medium to high confidence given some model consistency now that the mid-month period will generally maintain a rather changeable theme to the weather. This, as a result, means that whilst some warm, dry and summery weather is certainly possible at times, no sustained hot or summer weather is currently likely and there will be some spells of rain and showers at times too.
WEEK 3 (21st to 27th July):
Summary: Remaining changeable with further drier and brighter weather interspersed with rain, showers and cooler temperatures too.
Temperatures: Temperatures are currently forecast to be near or slightly below average at the moment given some longer range signals that point towards more of a W or NW’ly wind dominating through this week.
Rainfall: Precipitation totals are forecast to be near to average at the moment with no clear signal for either above or below average rainfall totals, but overall there does seem to be a greater risk of showers or longer spells of rain at times as the week progresses.
Confidence: Low to medium confidence to suggest that further changeable and distinctly ‘average’ July weather is likely with certainly scope for some drier and brighter weather at times, with warm temperatures, but with little signs and signals for any extended hot and summery weather.
WEEK 4 (28th July to 3rd August):
Summary: Potentially drier and warmer to end July and start August.
Temperatures: Temperatures may well become near or slightly above average by 1C or 2C as July comes to an end with perhaps a spell of warm or very warm weather developing.
Rainfall: With a signal for perhaps more in the way of high pressure and settled conditions developing then, at the moment, the signal is for rainfall totals to be slightly below average through this week with drier than average conditions dominating.
Confidence: Low confidence for now as there is some mixed signals in that some do point towards further cool and changeable weather, but with the bias being towards a spell of warmer and drier weather as we end July and move into early August.