UK Long Range Weather forecast
Long Range weather Forecast – Updated
Latest model data and information continues to highlight quite ‘average’ conditions continuing throughout the next few weeks and into early December now. There are no clear signs for any substantial early cold weather to develop, despite some frost and wintry precipitation on high ground becoming an increasing possibility by late November, but this isn’t anything out of the ordinary for the time of year. Temperatures and precipitation are forecast to be, overall, near to average throughout the next 3 to 4 weeks.
Average Mean Temperature for the Forecast Period: 8C
WEEK 1 (11th to 17th Nov):
Summary: Generally unsettled with rain or showers, temperatures near to average.
Temperatures: Temperatures look set to remain around average with little or no evidence, at the moment, to suggest that temperatures will be either above or below average. Some frost is possible at times.
Rainfall: Precipitation totals are forecast to be near to average with further wet weather at times, and of which locally may well be slightly above average.
Confidence: Confidence is high for the expected weather towards mid-November. At the moment rather typical mid-November weather is set to continue with near average temperatures and further rain or showers at times. However, there could be more in the way of drier intervals through this week than compared with previous weeks.
WEEK 2 (18th to 24th Nov):
Summary: Generally remaining unsettled and temperatures near to average.
Temperatures: Temperatures are forecast to be around average this week but with no clear signs and signals for any significantly milder or colder weather and hence near average temperatures are preferred overall, some frost is possible at times.
Rainfall: Rainfall totals are forecast to be around average at the moment during this week as there is no clear signal to suggest either above or below average rainfall is possible and given generally unsettled conditions, then near average precipitation totals is preferred.
Confidence: Confidence is medium to high to suggest a general continuation of the rather typical November weather through this week with both temperatures and rainfall quite near to average with further spells of wet and windy weather at times interspersed with some drier intervals.
WEEK 3 (25th Nov to 1st Dec):
Summary: Generally unsettled with temperatures near to average.
Temperatures: Temperatures are forecast to be around average through the final week or so of November with no signs for any colder weather developing to end the week. Some frosts may be possible at times, as would be expected for this time of the year.
Rainfall: Precipitation totals, at the moment, are forecast to be near to average still, though perhaps trending slightly above average given a signal for low pressure to generally be the dominant feature of the weather and this producing spells of wet weather through the week.
Confidence: Confidence is low to medium, for now, to suggest that the end of November will maintain rather ‘average’ conditions with temperatures near to average and with further spells of wet and unsettled weather. Some frosts are possible at times and precipitation may turn wintry on high ground, but no substantial or significant spell of cold weather is anticipated at the moment.
WEEK 4 (2nd to 8th Dec):
Summary: Unsettled, but perhaps drier and colder at times.
Temperatures: Temperatures are forecast to be near to average into early December which will signal some frosts at times, but no substantial cold weather is currently expected.
Rainfall: Rainfall totals are expected to be near to average for now with spells of wet and windy weather interspersed with some drier and colder conditions too. Precipitation may be wintry on higher ground at times.
Confidence: Confidence is low to suggest that quite ‘average’ conditions will continue into the opening week of December with temperatures near to average and precipitation around average too. There are no clear signs or signals for any significant cold weather to develop into early December at the moment.
Find below the Forecast Temperature Trend and Forecast Precipitation Trend graphs versus the climate averages. It should be noted that given the time frame involved these graphs don’t highlight the specific and exact expected temperature or rainfall totals, but have been produced to give a visual aid as to how both temperature and precipitation may trend through the forecast period.