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UK Long Range Weather Forecast

UK Long Range Weather Forecast

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Our Long Range Forecast provides you with the expected weather over the next 3 – 4 weeks. . Using longer range forecasting techniques we can provide a solid guide as to the expected weather and possible trends in temperatures and rainfall..


Longer Term Forecast and Trends – Tuesday 28th July to Monday 24th August 2015

Summary

Further cool and unsettled conditions are expected within the short term as we end July and move into early August. The relatively strong signal for a significant change to more summer-like conditions with warmer temperatures and drier than average conditions into early August have eased compared with last week. As a result, despite some warmer and drier weather into the first half of August a generally more changeable spell of weather is now preferred with warmer and drier conditions interspersed with further spells of wet and cooler weather.

Average Mean Temperature for the Forecast Period: 18C

 

WEEK 1 (28th July to 3rd August):

Summary: Further unsettled and cool conditions are set to dominate to end July and start August.

Temperatures are forecast to remain near or slightly below average by around 1C or 2C but potentially rising to nearer average as we move into the opening few days of August in particular. Precipitation totals at the moment are likely to be slightly above average for late July and early August given clear signs and signals that point towards low pressure dominating the weather overall to end July and start August with further spells of rain and showers at times, some of which could be heavy too especially more locally and regionally. High confidence to suggest that the unsettled conditions from the previous week will continue through to the end of July and more likely than not into early August as well. This would finish of a distinctly unsettled second half of July and there remains medium to high confidence too to suggest there is little or no risk of any very warm or hot summer weather to develop before the end of July now.

 

WEEK 2 (4th to 10th August):

Summary: Remaining changeable with some drier and warmer weather possible compared with the previous few weeks.

Temperatures are forecast to recover and become near to average which will produce warmer conditions than compared with previous weeks. However, the signal for any significant warm or hot weather is no longer evident within longer range forecast models and the risk of very warm, hot and summery weather developing through this week is considered low. Precipitation totals are forecast to return to near average values, but perhaps with slightly below average precipitation totals across more southern areas, whilst generally remaining near or slightly above average across more northern areas. Medium to high confidence to suggest some improvement in the weather compared with previous weeks, but the signal for a major change in the weather to more settled and much warmer conditions has eased compared with last week’s forecast and no sustained summer weather is currently expected during this week now.

 

WEEK 3 (11th to 17th August):

Summary: A rather mixed period of weather as we approach mid-August is currently the most likely outcome.

Temperatures, at the moment, are forecast to be near to average with just a low risk of very warm and hot weather developing. Near average temperatures for this time of year would still signal some particularly pleasant conditions however. Rainfall totals are forecast to be near to average, though perhaps still trending slightly below average across more southern areas given the potential for high pressure to still be influencing the weather for part of this week. A change to more unsettled conditions later in the week may then lead to some wetter weather developing at times. Low to medium confidence for now, but there is some model signals that point towards a generally unsettled and rather changeable period of weather as we approach mid-August. Some local and regional variations may well continue with a greater risk of drier and warmer conditions across more southern areas, whilst it is generally wetter and cooler further north.

 

WEEK 4 (18th to 24th August):

Summary: Potentially drier and warmer, but still with a risk of some rain and showers at times.

Temperatures may well become slightly above average by 1C or 2C through this week with the possibility of warmer weather developing at times through the second half of August. Precipitation totals are forecast to be generally around average for now given that there are no clear signs for any significantly above or below average rainfall totals during the second half of August. However, what should be emphasized is there can still be local and regional variations in rainfall totals at this time of year due to possible localized thunderstorms, for example, which can bring large rainfall totals on a more local scale. Low confidence for now, but generally despite some drier and warmer weather developing at times, further unsettled conditions with spells of rain and showers remain possible at times too.

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