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UK Long Range Weather forecast

UK Long Range Weather forecast

Longer Term Forecast and Trends
Tuesday 27th January to Monday 23rd February 2015


A quick return to cold and wintry conditions is expected throughout week 1 with wintry precipitation, frequent frosts and icy conditions with below average temperatures too. By week 2 a more settled spell is expected but with some uncertainties over the temperatures, but at the moment rather cold weather is set to continue. As the middle and latter half of February progresses there is a general bias towards more settled conditions dominating and this, as a result, leads to drier than average conditions and with temperatures, at the moment, recovering near to average but perhaps with frequent frosts and fog.

Average Mean Temperature for the Forecast Period: 5C


WEEK 1 (27th Jan to 2nd Feb):

Summary: Cold weather set to quickly return through this week with wintry precipitation, below average temperatures, frequent frosts and icy conditions.

Temperatures: Temperatures are forecast to be slightly below or  well below average throughout most of this week, especially after the 28th with frequent frosts, sub-zero temperatures and icy conditions.

Rainfall: Rainfall totals are forecast to be near or slightly above average, but despite that any precipitation that does occur is likely to be wintry, down to lower ground and especially across higher ground with the risk of disruptive and large snowfall totals at times.

Confidence: Confidence high to suggest that a quick return to cold and wintry weather will develop and persist throughout this week across all areas in what will be another particularly wintry spell of weather.

WEEK 2 (3rd to 9th Feb):

Summary: A more settled spell of weather and remaining quite cold.

Temperatures: There are some uncertainties over the temperatures through this week because they are highly dependent on the development of high pressure and the wind direction that moves around it. At the moment though the latest guidance is that rather cold weather will continue, with slightly below average temperatures, through this period with frosts but with icy conditions becoming less frequent.

Rainfall: Precipitation totals are forecast to become below average given that high pressure is expected to influence the weather across many areas so quite a dry week is expected for the time of year.

Confidence: Confidence is medium to high to suggest that a mainly dry and settled week will develop overall as high pressure develops. Confidence is, however, low to medium at best regarding temperatures with an almost equal chance that milder weather may develop as opposed to the colder solution which is preferred now.


WEEK 3 (10th to 16th Feb):

Summary: Often dry but with some rain or showers at times.

Temperatures: Temperatures are expected to recover back to nearer average values through towards the middle of February which will see a risk of frost at times, but compared with the previous weeks overall the risk of frost will reduce through this week.

Rainfall: Rainfall totals are forecast to remain slightly below average overall given that there is a signal for high pressure to remain quite influential, so despite some rain or showers at times a lot of dry weather is likely too.

Confidence: Confidence is low to medium to suggest that the approach to mid-February will signal further dry weather but with some spells of wet weather at times and with temperatures slowly recovering back to nearer average with any significant cold weather unlikely through this period.

WEEK 4 (17th to 23rd Feb):

Summary: A potentially dry and settled period with fog and frost.

Temperatures: Temperatures, overall, are forecast to be around average for mid to late February which will signal some cold days and with frost, of which may be more frequent than is usually expected by late February given more settled conditions.

Rainfall: Precipitation totals are forecast to be slightly below or below average and despite some patchy rain or showers at times, there is a clear signal for high pressure to dominate this week at the moment and, as a result, this will lead to mainly dry conditions for most areas.

Confidence: Confidence is low, given that this is a developing and rather new signal, but high pressure is currently expected to influence the weather after mid-February leading to a rather chilly/cold spell of weather but with plenty of dry conditions.

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