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UK Long Range Weather forecast

UK Long Range Weather forecast



Longer Term Forecast and Trends

Tuesday 25th November to Monday 22nd December 2014

Summary

Changeable weather, especially regarding temperatures, is expected in the short term with some further mild weather developing during the final few days of November. However, into the opening week of December colder weather is expected along with overnight frosts as high pressure brings settled weather. A more unsettled period is then expected as mid-December approaches, but there-after there is the potential for the first significant spell of cold weather after mid-month and as we approach the Christmas period, but confidence is low in this evolution for now given the time frame involved.

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Average Mean Temperature for the Forecast Period: 6C

WEEK 1 (25th Nov to 1st Dec):

Summary: Changeable period of weather, temporarily mild or very mild, colder to end the week.

Temperatures: Temperatures are forecast to vary, as they have done quite significantly this November, with near average temperatures to start this week but then becoming above average by 2C or 3C around the middle of the week, before then falling to nearer average to end the week. Frost isn’t expected through this period.

Rainfall: Precipitation totals are forecast to be below average in what is likely to be quite a dry period of weather with high pressure influential at times.

Confidence: Confidence is high for a rather changeable week, especially regarding temperatures with another milder spell of weather developing around the 28th and the 29th, but with a cooling trend then developing by the 1st. Little or no risk of frost or wintry weather through this period.

WEEK 2 (2nd to 8th Dec):

Summary: Increasingly settled and rather cold.

Temperatures: Temperatures are forecast to be near to average, perhaps slightly below average by 1C or 2C up to the 4th or so. Frost is likely to become an increasingly frequent occurrence and some wintry precipitation may occur on higher ground across more northern areas, at least for a time.

Rainfall: Rainfall totals are expected to be slightly below average overall given that high pressure is likely to be a dominant feature, though perhaps becoming more unsettled to end the week with precipitation totals recovering to nearer average.

Confidence: Confidence is medium to high to suggest that a spell of colder and drier weather will develop through this week as high pressure develops and leads to mainly dry conditions but with an increasing risk of frost and fog by night. There is then the possibility of more unsettled conditions developing by the end of the week, but this potential development has low confidence.

WEEK 3 (9th to 15th Dec):

Summary: Increasingly unsettled, near average temperatures.

Temperatures: Temperatures are forecast to be near to average with the possibility of colder weather developing at times leading to a risk of frost and some wintry precipitation on high ground. At the moment there is no signal for any significant cold weather though.

Rainfall: Precipitation totals are forecast to be near to average with spells of wet weather interspersed with some drier conditions at times. Precipitation may be wintry on highest ground at times, but no low level wintry precipitation is currently expected.

Confidence: Confidence is low to medium at the moment to suggest that the run-up to mid-December will generally be unsettled with spells of wet and windy weather. However, with winds coming from a west or north-westerly direction then temperatures are likely to be near to average and with some wintry precipitation on hills and frosts at times.

WEEK 4 (16th to 22nd Dec):

Summary: Potentially cold and drier.

Temperatures: Temperatures may well become slightly below average by 1C or 2C as we progress towards mid-December with an increasing risk of frosts and sub-zero temperatures with perhaps the first significant cold spell of the winter.

Rainfall: Precipitation totals are currently forecast to be slightly below average as high pressure becomes an influential feature of the weather leading to generally drier than average conditions. Any precipitation that does fall may well be wintry, especially on high ground.

Confidence: Given the extended time frame then confidence is low regarding the above scenario. However, in conjunction with the Winter Forecast and some broader thoughts and signals, there is the potential, at least, for the weather to become colder as we move beyond mid-December and approach the Christmas period. This potential scenario will be monitored closely in the coming weeks.

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