Long Range Weather Forecast – Summer 2016

Our UK Long Range Weather Forecast provides you with the expected weather over the next 3 – 4 weeks. Using longer range forecasting techniques we can provide a solid guide as to the expected weather and possible trends in temperatures and rainfall. Our UK Long Range Weather Forecast will also look at pressure trends and will mention any potential significant weather events.

Summer 2016

UK Long Range Weather Forecast and Trends

Friday 8th July to Thursday 4th August  2016

UK long range weather forecast summary

The weather during this period overall is likely to remain changeable with northern and north-western areas of the UK likely to see the bulk of any unsettled and at times windy weather as low pressure systems pass to the NW of the UK. Wetter weather will also be a feature across central and southern areas from time to time but there will be scope for some drier weather as ridges of high pressure drift in now and again. Temperatures overall will remain around the seasonal average but may fluctuate between warmer and cooler at times. Rainfall amounts are likely to remain above average for most areas away from the south, south east and some eastern areas of England where here, a more seasonally averaged outcome is likely.

UK Long Range Weather Forecast WEEK 1 (8th July to 14th July): 

Summary: Briefly warmer before fresher air returns, remaining changeable.

Conditions will remain unsettled but generally warm to start to the period as a SW’ly flow brings much warmer air across the UK. Once the low responsible for bringing the warmer temperatures passes through, we revert to fresher conditions from the NW and with low pressure generally in charge, then expect a showery theme to develop with the north and west more susceptible to the showers or even longer spells of rain, with eastern and southern eastern areas seeing the best of the weather, although there will be showers at times here as well.

Temperatures during the first third of the period will be warmer than average but much cooler temperatures will develop after and as a result, temperatures for the period will end up around average overall. Rainfall totals will be above average in the north and west but perhaps average to slightly below for the south and south east.

week 1 heights week 1 temp anom

UK Long Range Weather Forecast WEEK 2 (15th July to 21st July):

Summary: Changeable conditions to continue.

No major changes are expected as the flow remains generally from the west which again means north western areas of the UK will be more susceptible to unsettled conditions as weather fronts or low pressure systems pass close by. The best of the weather will likely come across the south, south east and east but this doesn’t mean that conditions here will be settled. More often than not conditions will remain changeable but the further south you are, the greater chance you will have of ridges of high pressure making an appearance, thus bringing a change in the weather from time to time. Temperatures will remain average with rainfall amounts also probably remaining around average, perhaps slightly above average across the northwest.

week 2 heights week 2 temp anom

UK Long Range Weather Forecast WEEK 3 (22nd July to 28th July):

Summary: No change signaled by the models.

Confidence starts to drop as we head through this period but data from the longer range models continue to show the Atlantic dominating with generally changeable conditions continuing. This theme ties in very well with our historical data which also favours the changeable theme continuing. That said ridges of high pressure will never be too far away from the south and as such the north/south split is likely to continue across the UK, with the north/northwest more likely to remain the more unsettled region, with the south/south east perhaps tending to be drier than elsewhere. Temperatures will continue to remain no better than average, with rainfall totals around average for most, perhaps continuing to be slightly above average across the northwest.

week 3 heights week 3 temp anom

UK Long Range Weather Forecast WEEK 4 (29th July to 4th August):

Summary:  Rinse and repeat!!!

Again confidence remains low but a continuation of the Azores high remaining to the W/SW of the UK seems the more plausible solution, thus keeping the UK in a generally changeable theme as low pressure continues to dominate the weather, with the north/northwest more likely to remain the more unsettled region, with the south/south east perhaps tending to be drier, although far from immune to any rain or showers. Temperatures will again remain around average but may fluctuate between warmer and colder. Rainfall amounts may vary greatly from region to region but overall, expect average to above average amounts.

week 4 heights week 4 temp anom

 

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