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UK Long Range Weather forecast

UK Long Range Weather forecast

The recent change to far more autumnal and unsettled conditions will continue in the coming days and weeks. A possible change to more settled conditions may develop for a time towards the end of October, but the signal into early November is for quite typical weather to re-develop or persist with low pressure leading to spells of wet and windy weather. Temperatures are forecast to recover to near or slightly above average towards and beyond mid-October for a time before cooling to nearer average to end the month.

WEEK 2 (14th to 20th Oct):

Summary: Often wet and windy, some drier intervals.

Temperatures: Temperatures, overall, are likely to be near or perhaps slightly above average as we move towards and beyond mid-October, so potentially becoming milder than compared with the previous week.

Rainfall: Precipitation totals are forecast to be near to average at the moment with spells of wet weather expected at times through the week but with some drier and brighter intervals too.

Confidence: Confidence is medium to high to suggest that generally unsettled and autumnal conditions will continue through the middle of October with further spells of rain or showers at times, but perhaps with some drier and brighter intervals at times. Temperatures may well recover a little compared with the previous week with fewer cool or cold days during the week but this will be offset by the still relatively unsettled conditions.

 

WEEK 3 (21st to 27th Oct):

Summary: Potentially drier and more settled.

Temperatures: Temperatures are forecast to be near to average at the moment given no clear signal for either above or below average temperatures. Some frost is possible by night.

Rainfall: Precipitation totals may begin to trend slightly below average as drier than average conditions develop in association with the possibility of increasingly settled conditions.

Confidence: Confidence is low to medium, for now, to suggest that a change to more settled conditions may develop by the end of October leading to drier than average conditions, but perhaps with an increasing frequency of overnight mist, fog and frosts.

WEEK 4 (28th Oct to 3rd Nov):

Summary: Increasingly unsettled to end October and start November.

Temperatures: Temperatures are currently forecast to be near to average to end October and start November with some frosts possible at times and feeling quite cold, especially in any wet weather.

Rainfall: Rainfall totals are forecast to increase to near or perhaps slightly above average given that a signal for low pressure and unsettled conditions is currently preferred as we end October.

Confidence: Confidence is low to suggest that October will end more unsettled than the previous week as low pressure returns. As a result spells of wet and windy weather is possible and with temperatures, overall, near to average it will be quite cold.

 

Updated 11:51 13th October 2014.

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