UK Long Range Weather Forecast
Our Long Range Forecast is here to provide you with an idea as to the expected weather within the longer term across the UK in general. As you can appreciate weather forecasting is not an exact science and the further one progresses away from present day then confidence in the expected weather decreases accordingly. However, using longer range forecasting techniques and information the below forecast will provide a good guide as to the expected weather and possible trends in temperatures and rainfall throughout the next 3 to 4 weeks.
Longer Term Forecast and Trends
Tuesday 12th May to Monday 8th June 2015
The changeable conditions of late are forecast to continue throughout the remainder of May overall. Temperatures are likely to remain near or slightly below average generally given the expected development of a west or north-westerly wind direction throughout the remainder of the month which will prohibit the risk of any significant warm or hot weather developing. Further rain and showers are possible at times, but equally some drier and brighter weather is possible too. There remains a relatively weak signal for perhaps some warmer and drier weather to develop at the end of May and into the opening week of June, but overall there continues to be little evidence to point towards any significant or substantial hot and summery weather within the medium and longer term.
Average Mean Temperature for the Forecast Period: 16C
WEEK 1 (12th to 18th May):
Summary: Generally remaining changeable with some rain and showers at times, but drier and brighter at times too.
Temperatures: Temperatures are likely to remain near or slightly below average towards the middle of May with the general wind direction becoming more W or NW’ly and this, as a result, will limit the risk of any significant warm weather developing.
Rainfall: Rainfall totals are forecast to be near average. Further rain and showers are certainly possible, but there will be some drier and brighter conditions at times too which will balance out the risk of rain and showers at times.
Confidence: Confidence is high for this week to see somewhat of an improvement in conditions than compared with the previous week for example as some drier and brighter conditions develop. Equally though there will still be a risk of some rain or showers at times as further changeable conditions continue.
WEEK 2 (19th to 25th May):
Summary: Remaining quite cool and changeable, drier and brighter at times, but with some rain and showers too.
Temperatures: At the moment temperatures are forecast to be slightly below average during the latter half of May given that, overall, a continuation of a general W or NW’ly wind is likely through this week which will continue to limit the risk of any significant warm or hot weather developing.
Rainfall: Rainfall totals are likely to be near to average for late May given that some rain and showers are possible, but equally drier and brighter days are probable too.
Confidence: Confidence is medium to high at the moment to suggest that a general continuation of rather changeable conditions from the previous week will continue into the latter half of May. Despite some drier and brighter weather at times, further rain and showers are possible too and it will remain quite cool as well.
WEEK 3 (26th May to 1st June):
Summary: Potentially drier and somewhat warmer across most areas.
Temperatures: Temperatures, overall, are likely to be near or perhaps slightly above average but with some significant local and regional variations possible. The end of May and start of June could well provide some warmer weather at times but there continues to be little evidence to point towards any significant very warm or hot weather developing.
Rainfall: Rainfall totals are forecast to trend slightly below average, perhaps locally below average at times through this week given that high pressure is currently favored to be the most influential feature of the weather and result in mainly dry conditions.
Confidence: Low to medium confidence for now as there are some weak signals for late May and the start of June which does create some uncertainty over the expected weather. However, what signals are present do point towards a generally warmer, drier and more settled late May and early June period and that is the preferred outcome for now.
WEEK 4 (2nd to 8th June):
Summary: Generally remaining quite settled, but perhaps with some rain and showers developing at times.
Temperatures: Signals are weak regarding temperatures into early June but for now generally near average temperatures are preferred. This would, at times, lead to some warmer weather but no significant hot weather is currently expected during this week.
Rainfall: Rainfall totals are forecast to remain slightly below average overall despite some rain and showers at times, more in the way of drier weather is still expected through the week and hence slightly below average rainfall totals.
Confidence: Low confidence given relatively weak signals but early June could well be produce rather ‘typical’ conditions which means generally near average temperatures, so relatively warm, but not hot, and rainfall totals slightly below average. There’s little evidence to point towards any substantial or significant hot and summery weather at the moment though.