UK Long Range Weather Forecast
Our Long Range Forecast provides you with the expected weather over the next 3 – 4 weeks. . Using longer range forecasting techniques we can provide a solid guide as to the expected weather and possible trends in temperatures and rainfall..
Longer Term Forecast and Trends
Tuesday 24th November to Monday 21st December 2015
There continues to quite a consistent signal for distinctly average and typical early winter conditions as we move into December. This means that low pressure will often be the dominant feature bringing spells of wet and windy weather, perhaps stormy weather at times. Temperatures, overall, are likely to average out close to normal for the time of year, but there will be temporary milder interludes and colder interludes too. Emphasis is on a lot of wet weather with slightly above or above average rainfall totals overall. There is little or no evidence to suggest any sustained or noteworthy cold weather will develop through the period.
Average Mean Temperature for the Forecast Period: 9C
WEEK 1 (24th to 30th Nov):
Summary: A changeable and often unsettled period of weather now dominating through the rest of November.
Temperatures are currently forecast to recover back to nearer average to end November after the colder weather in the previous week. There remain little signs for any significant mild weather to return, of which has dominated a large part of the autumn so far and somewhat colder weather with temperatures near or slightly below average by 1C or 2C, especially across northern areas, may well develop around the 28th and the 29th. Some frost is possible at times. Rainfall totals are likely to be near or slightly above average through the week. There are clear signs that despite some temporary drier weather at times, there will be a series of weather systems bringing a risk of further heavy showers or longer spells of rain at times. There is a risk of some wintry precipitation on higher ground, especially around the 27th to the 29th. High confidence for rather changeable conditions dominate through late November which is quite ‘typical’ for this time of year, with spells of wet and windy weather interspersed with colder and more showery conditions.
WEEK 2 (1st to 7th Dec):
Summary: Remaining predominantly unsettled and relatively mild as we move into the first winter month.
Temperatures, at the moment, are likely to be near to average for early December. Some temporary milder spells of weather certainly seem possible as winds become more SW’ly ahead of approaching weather systems, but equally may also become more NW’ly at times leading to temporary colder conditions too. Frosts will be possible, but aren’t expected to be frequent at the moment. Rainfall totals near to average for early December are likely which highlights some wet and windy weather at times, but some temporary drier weather is possible too. Wintry precipitation may develop on high ground at times, but there remains little risk of any substantial wintry weather at the moment. Medium to high confidence for now, but rather ‘average’ early December conditions are to be expected, which will lead to some colder weather at times, but equally spells of wetter, windier and milder weather may well develop at times too.
WEEK 3 (8th to 14th Dec):
Summary: Potentially very unsettled and perhaps stormy.
The medium and longer range signals continue to highlight average temperatures overall as we approach the middle of December. Given the time of year this would allow for frosts at times and generally produce quite cold conditions. Temporary spells of milder weather may well arrive as weather systems approach bringing milder air from the SW, but colder weather could well equally develop as winds become more NW’ly as low pressure systems clear though, so an overall signal is for average temperatures. There remains little or no signal however for any sustained or significant cold weather during this week. Rainfall totals are forecast to become slightly above or above average given a strong signal for low pressure to be dominating the weather. As a result showers and longer spells of rain are expected, some perhaps heavy at times too. There could be wintry precipitation, especially on higher ground at times, but no widespread wintry weather is expected. Medium confidence to suggest a very unsettled and perhaps stormy spell of weather will dominate as we approach the middle of December with temperatures averaging out near to average, but rainfall totals generally becoming above average.
WEEK 4 (15th to 21st Dec):
Summary: Remaining changeable and often unsettled, perhaps colder weather developing at times, otherwise relatively mild.
Temperatures close to seasonal averages for the middle of December are currently expected which does equate to quite chilly conditions with some frost at times. There is a low risk that colder weather will develop more frequently during this week from the N or NW than compared with the previous weeks. Rainfall totals near or slightly above average are likely to be maintained given that there are clear signs and signals that highlight further unsettled conditions as low pressure dominates. As a result a rather wet week is currently expected, but perhaps with some wintry precipitation at times too on higher ground. Low to medium confidence at the moment, given some pronounced signs and signals that the middle of December will produce quite average conditions for the UK. This often means wet and windy weather will dominate but somewhat colder weather potentially arriving at times too.