Low pressure dominating but very mild end of the week - March 7, 2017


Low pressure will continue to be the dominant feature of our weather with further wet weather to be expected. Though it will be changeable at times with drier and settled interludes allowing temperatures to rise and feeling more ‘spring like’ from time to time.

Whilst today is rather unsettled across the south-west of England many areas will experience a settled day with blue skies and prolonged spells of sunshine, however it is all change from the west tonight as another Atlantic system makes its way in bringing with it further rainfall.

Showers will initially affect western coastal areas this evening before organised and heavier rainfall moves in between the hours of 11pm-1am across west Wales, north-west England and western Scotland.

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UK Precipitation and Sea Level Pressure – GFS Model

The system will quickly spread eastwards during the early hours of Wednesday morning. Whilst the rain will become generally ‘patchier’ in nature across the far north it will be more organised across Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and Pennine areas.

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UK Precipitation and sea level pressure – UKWF NMM HRES 3KM model.

The system will then edge into East Anglia and South-East England with the rain rather patchy and lighter across the south and south-east. The system will eventually clear the east by 8-9am.

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In behind the system tomorrow will be a better day across northern areas away from Scotland, where here heavy and at times thundery showers will be the order of the day. It will be a wet start across Wales, SW England and Pennine areas with showers or longer spells of rain developing with the odd shower across central and southern areas gradually fizzling out.

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As rain and showers gradually die out the afternoon period of Wednesday will be much better with sunny spells developing and temperatures responding nicely. The temperature chart below shows temperatures reaching 12-14c across the southern half of the United Kingdom with contrasting temperatures across the north where cooler temperatures are evident.

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Thursday sees a cooler day away from the far south with light showers affecting south-western parts of the United Kingdom and the far north including Scotland. The chart below highlights the north/south split very well with 11-13c across the far south and 3-8c across the far north.

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Thursday night sees another system sliding up from the south-west bringing a spell of wet weather across parts of south-west England, Wales, N England and Scotland. The system will be slow to clear far northern areas on Friday, though for southern areas Friday is expected to be a very warm day for the time of year as we draw up much warmer air from the near continent.

Friday’s maximum temperatures may reach 16c locally. The chart below shows the maximum temperatures from Friday and on some occasions you can add a degree or two onto the expected values.

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The weekend on a whole will be unsettled with frontal systems moving in from the west during the overnight periods with showers during the day. Despite this temperatures will still be on the mild side across the southern half of the United Kingdom with highs ranging from 9-13c.

Lewis


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