Much colder weather on the horizon? - November 16, 2017


Some of the well known weather forums have been on meltdown over the last 18 hours or so after some fantastic GFS model runs (fantastic if you’re a coldie that is). As always it quickly circulates social media.

The GFS 18z last night showed promising signs of some much colder and potentially snowy weather in the form of very cold air from the north-east. It had very little support from the ensembles (members of the model run) and also from other models such as the ECMWF which is a European model and the UKMO model.

This mornings GFS 00Z continues to paint a much colder picture later next week, however it does seem to have very little support < 25%. Whilst the GFS model may be onto a trend, I would approach the current model output for next week with caution. Whilst it is looking unlikely (at the moment) that a very cold and snowy spell of weather is on the way, one thing for sure is we’re certainly entering a promising period of model watching.

The attached video below shows exactly what I’m talking about. Much colder air (blues and purples) filtering down from the north-east next week. The particular chart used on the video is 850hpa temperatures with sea level pressure. You can take a look at the latest GFS model run by clicking here (the model updates 4 times daily), it is worth a bookmark! I’ll keep you updated as always – Lewis


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