Summer 2013 Forecast

Now that the recent severe weather has quietened down somewhat, we have been able to start looking ahead a little to the summer (and given how cold it has been for so long, I should imagine that quite a few of you are too!).

The first thing to say here is that this is a preliminary forecast. The final summer thoughts from us won’t be available until May. However for now, as I have started to conduct research into years which convey similar characteristics to this year so far across a broad range of circulations that affect weather conditions, I have used a very handy tool from the NOAA, which allows us to enter a range of years, and then produce averaged plots from all of those years together. A full explanation on how we came to choose these particular years will be offered when our final summer forecast is released. However, for now, here are the findings. (Note: Images on the top are Temperature anomaly – the difference from the long term average, and on the bottom are Rainfall anomaly)

May

Overall we are expecting May at this stage to finish slightly below average temperature wise, and around average in terms of Rainfall. Current estimations suggest that the first half of the month is likely to see more in the way of unsettled and wetter conditions, where as later in the month, we may see more in the way of settled conditions and some above average temperatures. Of course it should be noted that the values shown are anomalies from the average. The average May temperature for the UK stretches from around 10-12c in the North, to around 15-17c further South.

June

June could once again prove a month of two halves, with the first half likely to continue on from the end of May rather settled with temperatures perhaps just above average as a ridge of high pressure moves in from the South. As the month progresses, however, a return to more unsettled conditions with cooler temperatures is expected, though rainfall overall through June may end up slightly below average.

July

July overall is expected to be cooler than average, with rather unsettled conditions expected to dominate at this stage. The slight wildcard is the suggestion of high pressure just to the West of the UK, and this may just keep far Western regions a little drier than the average overall.

August

Much the same picture as July expected, with temperatures likely to be below average, and Rainfall amounts around average.

The strongest signal through the summer period is for low pressure to stubbornly dominate just to the East of the UK, and this is why the signal for below average temperatures exists, with a notable higher than average rainfall anomaly persisting throughout across Mainland Europe. This may prove the trickiest element of the forecast, with our early research suggesting that the UK is likely to straddle the boundary between low pressure to the East, and higher pressure just to the South-West of the UK. The main concern at present would be for a slight shift Westwards in the pattern, which may leave the UK open to another very wet summer as the rainfall anomaly across Europe ends up a little closer to the UK.

So for now overall a better summer than 2012 is expected, with less rainfall overall, though temperatures overall looking rather disappointing. Of course at this still early stage there is still a lot left open to uncertainty, and when we come to release our full summer forecast in May, we will have had more time to crunch data and to see how the major global circulatory patterns are shaping up relative to our projections.

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