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Turning colder with frosts, snow showers and significant windchill

snow

We’ve not exactly had much cold weather to talk about this winter so the weather over the next 3-4 days is going to be a real shock to the system. Our weather over the coming days will be from the east as our normal Atlantic weather from the west has become ‘blocked’. Let’s take a quick look at what the pattern looks like on a chart.

scand

The above chart illustrates a very strong Scandinavian high and this is halting systems from the west (Atlantic). With pressure building to the east and north-east, with low heights it is forcing much colder air to flood west/ south-west from the east/north-east into the United Kingdom. The purples and blues represent very cold upper air (850hpa temperatures) and the isobars show an east to south-east flow developing.

The coldest weather is expected to last from Thursday-Sunday with a gradual warm up later next week.

Many areas will stay dry during the next couple of days, though we do maintain a risk of snow showers filtering inland across north sea facing coasts which may give small accumulations of snow locally, especially late Thursday and into Friday morning. The most frequent of showers during this period are expected across NE England and E Scotland. Don’t be surprised if you do catch the odd wintry shower away from the east.

Let’s take a look at what the precipitation type charts show for the next couple of days (rain is blue, green sleet/snow mix and snow is pink/red).

Thursday 09:00am

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Thursday 18:00pm

 p2

Friday 08:00am

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UKWF is keeping a very close eye on developments for Saturday as the models are predicting a more general area of precipitation moving in from the east. Whilst it is looking marginal for extreme coastal areas with a ‘warmer’ sector showing in the flow, many inland parts of England and potentially Wales may see some snowfall, locally significant. Our precipitation type charts from our 5 day 10km model below highlights the risk.

Saturday 15:00pm

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Saturday 18:00pm

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Not only is snow in the forecast this week we’ll see overnight frosts returning, low daytime temperatures and a significant windchill factor! Let’s first take a look at what the temperatures are doing.

Min. Temperatures – Thursday 05:00am

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Min. Temperatures – Thursday 15:00pm

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Min. Temperatures – Friday 04:00am

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Min. Temperatures – Friday 12:00pm

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Min. Temperatures – Friday 23:00pm

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This cold snap will deliver ‘feel like’ temperatures of -11 to -16c locally! Let’s take a look at those windchill temperatures.

Wind chill – Thursday 10:00am

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Wind chill – Thursday 22:00pm

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Wind chill – Friday 15:00pm

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Wind chill – Friday 21:00pm

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Wind chill – Friday 23:00pm

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To conclude; turning very cold from the east with snow showers across north sea facing coasts, these heading inland at times. Despite the risk of the odd light snow shower pushing inland, many central areas will stay dry but very cold Thursday-Friday. Risk of more general area of snow moving in from the east Saturday, potentially bringing some significant accumulations across some areas as it moves inland to affect many parts of England. Night time frosts returning with only extreme eastern coastal areas staying around or just above freezing. Significant windchill factor both day and night, wrap up warm folks! We’ve just launched our new pro radar services and I just know if you’re a weather enthusiast like myself you’ll love it! Click the button below for more information.

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I’ll keep you updated as always.

Lewis

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