UKWF – Severe Weather Advisory

Issued: 1000Z Saturday 2nd January 16

Valid From: 1000Z Saturday 2nd January 16

Valid Until: 2359Z Monday 4th January 16

ELEMENTS: HEAVY RAIN. LOCALISED FLOODING.

Weather fronts are expected to become slow moving across parts of E and SE Scotland over the next few days. These will bring a persistent risk of rain throughout the advisory period and, as the day’s progress, lead to increasingly large rainfall totals. Some localised flooding is expected, especially through Sunday and into Monday.

East and SE Scotland:

Rain will develop through Saturday (2nd) and become persistent across the highlighted areas throughout the course of Sunday and also into Monday. Within the amber area a general 30mm to 40mm is expected quite widely, but with totals exceeding 50mm. However, of particular concern is the predicted rainfall totals within the region highlighted red, so across parts of Tayside, Fife, Forth Valley and east and south-eastern Scotland in general. The persistence of the rain here throughout the next 48 to 72 hours is expected to lead to a risk of up to 100mm or rain and perhaps with local totals exceeding 150mm of rain. This volume of water will lead to some localised flooding, again especially across the region highlighted red.

modelanalysis

Elsewhere:

Whilst further spells of rain and showers are expected across other areas of the UK in the coming days with some additional rainfall totals, at the moment no significant or large rainfall totals are expected. With temperatures generally lower than compared with recent weeks this helps to lower the amount of moisture within the atmosphere and, as a result, decreases the risk of large rainfall totals. That being said, across areas that have seen large rainfall totals in recent weeks then vigilance is advised given that further unsettled conditions are to be expected. However, as the above forecast accumulated precipitation chart highlights, the main focus for the largest rainfall totals through to the end of Monday (4th) is indeed across E and SE Scotland, with much lower totals elsewhere.


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