Chief Forecaster's assessment: Matthew Hugo

HEAVY RAIN. LOCALISED FLOODING

The unsettled conditions that have developed this weekend will continue well into next week. However, of some concern within the short term is the development of yet further heavy rain and showers across parts of central, southern and south-eastern areas of England during Monday. Equally there is also a threat of some heavy rain across parts of Scotland as well as a weather front becomes particularly slow moving there.

CENTRAL, SOUTHERN and SOUTH-EAST ENGLAND

A developing area of low pressure, with its centre moving along the English Channel, will bring a particularly unsettled day to many central, southern and south-eastern areas of England on Monday. Throughout the day there is a risk of some persistent and often heavy rain or showers. Equally a few isolated thunderstorms may also develop during the afternoon as well. Within the warning area a general 20mm to 30mm of rain is possible during the course of Monday but perhaps with locally higher totals of up to 40mm. Some localised flooding may occur in prone areas and equally there will be some poor driving and traveling conditions as well due to surface water and spray. Later in the day and overnight into Tuesday the rain will eventually clear but quite a strong and gusty NW’ly wind may then develop as well in association with the clearing low pressure system.

SCOTLAND

A weather front is forecast to become slow moving across parts of Scotland during the day. There is some uncertainty over the exact location of the weather front, but it is likely to bring a persistent risk of moderate or heavy rain across some northern, central and eastern areas of the country in particular at the moment. Within the warning area a general 30mm to 40mm of rain is possible during the day but with local totals in excess of 50mm to 60mm certainly possible, especially across higher ground. Some localised flooding may well develop in places during the course of Monday as the rainfall totals increase quite quickly and poor driving and travel conditions are certainly possible at times. At the moment more western and south-western areas of Scotland are likely to see smaller rainfall totals and should generally be unaffected by any severe weather but the situation will remain under review.

Valid From: 0600 Mon 24th August - Valid Until: 0600 Tue 25th August


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