Winter makes a VERY late return next week - April 19, 2017


Jog your memory back to just a few weeks ago and you’ll remember that much of the UK basked in warm sunshine with highs of 27ºc across parts of the east and south-east! Now in just 5 days time we’ll be going the opposite end of the scale, well not -27ºc, though it is going to turn much colder.

Next week we see a northerly air flow develop with much colder air being sourced from the Arctic. Members of the weather community would call the incoming pattern ‘almost perfect’ for very snowy weather, if we turned our calenders back a few pages to December and early January of course.  Whilst snow will be in the forecast next week it certainly will be hit and miss with regards to areas that may or may not see settling snow.

Unlike typical winter months, whilst April has proved in the past that it can deliver snowfall, even down to low lying parts of the United Kingdom, it is not quite textbook in forecasting terms as we have to factor in increased solar output and warmer sea surface temperatures, both of which affect conditions at the surface.

The below charts show the northerly in question that is expected to develop early next week.

Showers will turn increasingly to snow across Scotland with some decent accumulations especially over higher ground (even to lower levels), as the cooler air digs south during the early hours of Monday. Through Monday afternoon as the colder air continues its journey southwards, showers will fall increasingly of snow across higher ground of northern England with wintry showers also affecting lower levels. The chart below (pink) shows where wintry precipitation is likely to fall.

Tuesday sees a risk of further significant snowfall across parts of northern and central Scotland with wintry showers also affecting western and eastern coastal parts of the United Kingdom.

Whilst many parts of the United Kingdom will see wintry showers; rain, hail, sleet and snow mix, any ‘surprises’ being snow laying across lower areas of England and Wales won’t come during daylight hours, it would be during the overnight period when of course the sun doesn’t have an impact on temperatures at the surface, a simpler way of putting it is ‘when temperatures can drop’.

It will certainly feel much colder when you add on the wind chill factor by day and night time frosts will be back, especially across inland parts! As shown on the charts below;

Whilst the sudden blast of cold air will only last 3 days before it modifies out, we’ll see the colder theme continuing for the next 7-10 days. So expect much colder weather next week with wintry showers, significant windchill factor for the time of year, snow across Scotland and maybe a few surprises to lower levels in England! I’ll keep you updated. Feel free to leave a comment below this article.

Lewis


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