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Another area of low pressure set to bring further wet and windy weather.

Incoming: Gales, heavy rain and snow.

Storm Angus certainly delivered some exceptional wind speeds across the channel isles and parts of south & south-east England overnight. Not only was there strong winds, some areas received a real soaking with rather impressive rainfall accumulations leading to localised flooding, especially across parts of Devon, Cornwall and Somerset.

The next batch of severe weather moves in tonight and during the early hours of tomorrow morning with further heavy rainfall the main concern. Associated with the heavy rain will be a spell of gales across Wales, South-West England, Yorkshire & Lincolnshire, Pennine areas and the West Midlands. The strongest winds will be across western coasts of Wales, Bristol channel locations and south-west England around mid-morning on Monday, gusts may reach in excess of 55mph locally and will continue throughout the day into the early hours of Tuesday morning before eventually subsiding.

Let’s take a look at this particular area of low pressure in detail.

Sunday 9pm – Sea level pressure

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Monday 9am – Sea level pressure

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The above charts show the area of low pressure in question moving up from the south-west later tonight and making its way north to affect many areas throughout Monday. Associated frontal systems will move up from the south late tonight. The initial rainfall ahead of the main area will be narrower and patchier in nature, though during the early hours of Monday morning is when the main batch moves up. Please find precipitation and sea level pressure graphics below from our in-house high resolution weather model.

Sunday 10pm – Sea level pressure & precipitation

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Monday 8am – Sea level pressure & precipitation

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The rain will continue to extend north and east through Monday with localised flooding in places.

Monday 2pm – Sea level pressure & precipitation

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During the afternoon period it will appear to break up and become patchier in nature further north, though it will re-intensify late afternoon and into the evening period across Yorkshire and parts of Lincolnshire, North Wales, North-West England and the Midlands.

Monday 5pm – Sea level pressure & precipitation

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The rainfall totals may exceed 50mm locally with the areas at greatest risk being south-western parts of England, Wales, central areas and parts of Yorkshire. With large totals that fell overnight, combining totals with the incoming rain will certainly lead to a risk of flooding locally.

Snow risk

Not only is rainfall a concern, our weather models are hinting at some significant accumulations of snowfall over higher ground in Wales, West Midlands and over the highest ground across the Pennines during tomorrow. The freezing level is expected to drop during heavier precipitation which will support snowfall increasingly down to lower levels locally, this is because we still have some colder air being drawn into the low pressure. There is some uncertainty with regards to exact details on the snow risk but I will keep you updated on this throughout the day and this evening. Please find the precipitation type chart, freezing level (0c isotherm) chart and snow depth chart from our high resolution model below.

Precipitation type – Monday 12pm.

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Freezing level (0c isotherm) – Monday 12pm.

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Snow depth chart  – Monday 9pm.

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Video showing expected wind gusts over the next 24-36 hours. 

 

To conclude; Remaining very unsettled with plenty of heavy rain across south-west England, Wales, Midlands, Yorkshire and Lincolnshire and central southern parts with localised flooding. Strong winds across Wales, SW England, Yorkshire and Lincolnshire, West Midlands and Pennine areas with gusts in excess of 55mph at times. Snow risk over higher ground of Wales, W Midlands and Pennine areas.

I will keep you updated as always via our Facebook page.

Lewis

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